If you've been paying attention to international news outside the United States mainstream press over the past few months you may have noted a significant change in sentiment with regard to strategic alliances amongst nations. Some of the more important stories include the public derision of current world order by national leaders, unexpected and unprecedented Middle East peace agreements, an acceleration in developing the BRICS Bank and most surprisingly, a serious conversation about the exchange of fossil fuels between countries without the use of American dollars.
As a reminder, the United States orchestrated an alliance with the Saudi Kingdom in the early 1970s that required all nations to purchase OPEC oil in dollars. This unique arrangement, aptly known as the Petrodollar, has been the driving force behind a US dominated, singular world order and a essential mechanism that's enabled its financial dominance for the past half century. This unprecedented advantage has been supported by a rapacious need for energy driven by the capitalist, expansionist world economy and protected by 750 military bases throughout the world. The role of these bases is two fold - one, to enforce and protect an apparatus that provides continual strength to a currency that's backed by nothing other than its international acceptance and two, provide a conduit that funnels dollars back into US bonds (creating dollar strength) by the nations who continually receive those dollars in exchange for base occupation.
Unfortunately, but without surprise, the coercive nature of the Petrodollar became a lethal weapon for the capitalist class who coveted the abundant resources and market potential of the underdeveloped global south, specifically, Latin America. On one hand, they employed predatorial financial initiatives including economic sanctions, currency arbitrage and leveraged debt instruments resulting in the privatization of resources, infrastructure and services for multinational corporate contracts. And on the other hand, coups, assassinations, occupations and war in nations that elected leaders who refused to play ball with foreign profiteers. Even today, 2023, almost one third of the world's economy is suffering under economic sanctions imposed by western governments (forcing economic refugees to flee and seek opportunity north) because Washington does not agree with the method in which specific countries manage their domestic wealth and distribution of resources. Not the most persuasive method of winning friends and influencing people!
So, why the sudden shift in behavior from world leaders and their respective nations.
In a word, inertia, or technically, the law of inertia. Simply stated, a dominant force within any system will eventually exhaust itself, peak and ultimately reverse in an effort to seek balance, especially one that has reached the far end of extreme. So what is this apposing force and where did it come from? For that answer, we need to look east at The Peoples Republic of China.
China is one of the world's oldest civilizations, thousands of years in age and known for adopting plans that project decades into the future. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) defines themselves as Socialist but technically their system is a hybrid of government controlled sectors coexisting with private industry operating within regulated market forces (frequently called Socialism with Chinese Characters). The result of this blended economy has been nothing short of stellar leading the world in growth for the past three decades while lifting 800 million people out of poverty. Essentially, China has become the worlds manufacture/trading partner and in order to maintain this position, they had to identify and expand markets into the second and third world. To do this, they recognized a need to participate in developing these countries through essential infrastructure projects including roads, bridges, dams, sewage, hospitals and schools (160 billion in Latin America alone). Opposite of US planners, China adopted a partnership model that relies upon cooperation over dominance, productivity over financial extraction.
Fast forward to the war in Ukraine. After decades of tolerating NATO expansion and encroachment around Russian borders, a multi year, deadly conflict in the Russian speaking Donbas region, the 2014 Maidan Coup and failed Minks Accords, Putin finally took the bait and attacked. In response, the United States levied economic sanctions on Russia and solicited the world for support. But the global south wasn't buying it, citing neutrality with a greater focus on resolution over war. Of course, this was their politically correct attempt at stating what they could not say, specifically - we have seen this play book before and have no interest in enriching war profiteers, multinational corporations nor the administrators of controlling governments over the people. Further, most of these developing nations had experienced a mutually beneficial partnership with Russia's ally, China, and were not about to exchange any of it for the draconian, dictatorial model of the past.
And, as it turns out, they were correct. Aside from the billions of dollars US tax payers have handed over to military contractors, the Ukraine has offered its riches to all who are interested. In fact, even as causalities continued to mount and the bloody conflict marched into its second year, Zelensky was pitching Wall Street on the potential of his country's land, resources and industry. Come one, come all, the highest bidder take all. Forget national sovereignty, labor rights or the public's participation in driving mutually beneficial initiatives - that's old school, 20th century stuff.
And while all of this is going on, China continues to broker peace deals between bitter rivals in the middle east, hold talks with world leaders about future trade and systematically make friends with just about every nation on the planet. Sure, China has a financial motive and its own set of internal problems but their strategy of creating markets by investing in them proved to be effective. And it is this alternative that's allowed the world to publicly express their desire for a multipolar world.
And why wouldn't they. After all, the self-proclaimed leader of the free world sloganeers the idea of freedom, democracy and individual rights on a daily basis.
Ironically and paradoxically, the pressure of an authoritarian government has brought the potential of a balanced world into the realm of possibilities. A world that desperately seeks an alternative to its current, self destructive trajectory. Can it work and will it hold? That answer lies squarely on the shoulders of the current Empire who can either continue down the path of aggressive dominance or work toward a mutually beneficially system that includes the other 95% of the planet. My hope lies in the later, but historic precedent suggests the former.
“Mafia is the best example of capitalism we have.”
Marlon Brando
Excellent poignant analysis.